Integrated forecast of cigarette demand in Tongchuan City

doi:10.16472/j.chinatobacco.2019.255

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Abstract In order to improve the forecast accuracy of cigarette market demand. By establishing ARIMA, VAR, SVR and the cigarette demand model under habitual consumption, the demand for cigarettes in Tongchuan City is modeled and predicted. Based on the idea of integrated method, the prediction results of the above four models are integrated and analyzed. Results show that the absolute relative error of the integrated model in forecasting cigarette sales in 2017-2018 is controlled within 1%, and the absolute value of the average relative error is controlled at about 0.8%. The prediction result is significantly better than the single model.

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	Articles by authors
	WANG Shihao
	ZHANG Xiaoni
	ZHANG Yun
	WANG Kaisheng

Key words: cigarette market demand Integrated forecast ARIMA VAR SVR habitual consumption cigarette demand model

Received: 2019-08-06 Published:: 2020-01-10

Cite this article:

WANG Shihao, ZHANG Xiaoni, ZHANG Yun, WANG Kaisheng. Integrated forecast of cigarette demand in Tongchuan City[J]. Acta Tabacaria Sinica, 2019, 25(6): 105-109.

URL:

http://ycxb.tobacco.org.cn/EN/10.16472/j.chinatobacco.2019.255 or http://ycxb.tobacco.org.cn/EN/Y2019/V25/I6/105

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