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中国烟草学报
Acta Tabacaria Sinica  2019, Vol. 25 Issue (6): 105-109    DOI: 10.16472/j.chinatobacco.2019.255
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Integrated forecast of cigarette demand in Tongchuan City
WANG Shihao1, ZHANG Xiaoni1, ZHANG Yun2, WANG Kaisheng2
1 College of Economics and Management, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China;
2 Tongchuan Municipal Tobacco Monopoly Administration, Tongchuan 727031, China
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Abstract In order to improve the forecast accuracy of cigarette market demand. By establishing ARIMA, VAR, SVR and the cigarette demand model under habitual consumption, the demand for cigarettes in Tongchuan City is modeled and predicted. Based on the idea of integrated method, the prediction results of the above four models are integrated and analyzed. Results show that the absolute relative error of the integrated model in forecasting cigarette sales in 2017-2018 is controlled within 1%, and the absolute value of the average relative error is controlled at about 0.8%. The prediction result is significantly better than the single model.
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WANG Shihao
ZHANG Xiaoni
ZHANG Yun
WANG Kaisheng
Key words:  cigarette market demand  Integrated forecast  ARIMA  VAR  SVR  habitual consumption  cigarette demand model    
Received:  2019-08-06      Published::  2020-01-10
Cite this article:    
WANG Shihao, ZHANG Xiaoni, ZHANG Yun, WANG Kaisheng. Integrated forecast of cigarette demand in Tongchuan City[J]. Acta Tabacaria Sinica, 2019, 25(6): 105-109.
URL:  
http://ycxb.tobacco.org.cn/EN/10.16472/j.chinatobacco.2019.255  or          http://ycxb.tobacco.org.cn/EN/Y2019/V25/I6/105
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